Metaverse Hype
The metaverse concept is hot right now. 🔥 Important people are saying it's going to be big. Bigger than anything before it! It's a new version of the internet, apparently. Farewell Web 2.0, hello Web3. The interesting thing is that everyone seems to have a different idea of what the metaverse is (or will be). Some people think it's going to solve inequality, create unprecedented opportunity, and some think it's a dystopian nightmare. I will try to briefly summarize what I think people believe the metaverse is and where I think the real opportunity is.
Essentially the metaverse concept is a vague, open ended term for whatever the person speaking is most hopeful for in the future of the internet. It's the near-future convergence of all of the technologies we've been building in the past decade. I'm talking about mobile internet, real-time 3D rendering, XR, AI, crypto, and IOT. People tend to focus most on their particular area of interest and more importantly their area of financial investment. If you listen to the crypto believers, the metaverse is the future 3D world where their NFTs and virtual land are worth millions. If you listen to the XR fans, it's a VR world we can live and work in every waking hour of the day to escape our shitty lives. If you listen to enterprise/manufacturing people, it's about connecting all of our IOT devices, robots, logistics, and machines with AI and Mixed Reality overlays. Admittedly, this is an oversimplification, but I think it covers some of the more popular positions I see people taking regarding the metaverse.
So how much of this should be believed? How much is just noise coming from people grabbing onto the hot new thing trying to get attention and make easy money? I think there's signal to be found in the noise if you look in the right places. Here's my method for separating the two: Focus on where people are spending their time and getting real enjoyment as well as where they're spending their money and getting real returns on investment today.
Here are some examples of true signal:
Fortnite with its massive multiplayer games and virtual concerts
Pokemon Go with its social experiences and fantasy layer of Pokemon roaming around us unseen to the naked eye
Zillow, which allows you to walk past a house and immediately look up its value and often see photos/floorplans of the inside
Cruise and Tesla with their self-driving cars that understand the world with AI trained for millions of miles in simulation
And here are some examples of noise:
VR conference rooms for meetings as avatars
Wendy's creating a VR version of Wendy's in the metaverse
NFTs that are attached to nothing but a picture of a goofy looking ape
Virtual land in 3D worlds that haven't been built yet
The difference between the examples above? The first set are generating money, sustained attention, and value today. They're a glimpse into the future of a metaverse that we know can exist and without too much work could be even more connected. The second set might be generating some money today, but they don't have real value or sustained attention. They feel forced.
I think there's something of real substance in the metaverse concept. I don't think it's going to be the dystopian metaverse everyone is afraid of and I also don't believe a the metaverse/crypto is going to solve the world's inequality problems. The convergence of mobile internet, 3D rendering, XR/VR/AR, AI, crypto, and IOT is real. Interesting things are happening and there will be opportunities for those who wish to take advantage of them.
That's enough for now, I'll dig deeper on these topics in future posts. Thanks for reading!
-Adam